A press release this week from Rystad Energy made me go all nostalgic for the good old days when doing things subsea was still new and exciting and Subsea Engineering News was the publication to go to when folks in the industry wanted more than the few crumbs from that companies were prepared to release. I believe I can hear at least a few rounds of applause in the distance.
Rystad forecast that the subsea spend – including equipment, SURF and services – from 2024-2027 will be $42bn. That’s a big number. While the history of subsea production goes back to the late 1970’s and it grew through the ’80’s and ’90’s, it really hit its stride at the beginning of the 21st century with TotalEnergies’ – then TotalElf – Girassol project, its first deepwater West African development. WA developments, in both Angola and Nigeria, drove the big international rise in subsea spending to where it is today. Brazil continues to be the biggest spender, for example, representing 45% of forecast SURF (subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines) expenditure. Guyana is a new big spender with all of its deepwater FPSO developments, while Norway continues to spend heavily.
Being an old guy with a long memory – I haven’t totally lost it quite yet – I remember when Rystad was an upstart analyst and consultancy. Founder Jarand Rystad spoke at one of the UTC conferences in Norway – not sure what year that was, maybe 2004, 05, or 06 – and quite a few people I spoke to, ie mostly non-Norwegians, wondered who he was and why he had been given a prominent speaking slot at a major subsea event. The assumption was that it was because he was Norwegian and at that time there was no major Norwegian industry analyst. The Norwegians were always known for helping to promote their own. Now 20 years later, Rystad Energy is one of the leading energy analysts and does a very good job of keeping its name in the energy media.
That doesn’t mean that their team knows everything. The analyst quoted in the aforementioned press release commented that some of Norway’s increased spending on subsea was based on some ‘new’ technology which he cited as subsea hydraulic power units and a new remotely operated tubing hanger tool. I would beg to differ. Neither of these technologies, although not insignificant if put to use by more than one company, is a game changer. I suspect that some Norwegian companies whispered in the analyst’s ear. Subsea gas compression is of greater significance and is already being used in the international arena. Others might disagree with me, but then folks have always disagreed with my opinions. So be it.
